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Third-Quarter Outlook: Slow Growth Is Not No Growth—Earnings Still Rising

Adviser Investments’ Third-Quarter Outlook Webinar, Slow Growth Is Not No Growth—Earnings Still Rising, features commentary from Chairman Dan Wiener, Director of Research Jeff DeMaso and Chief Investment Officer Jim Lowell as well as perspectives from other members of our investment team. Among other topics, the Webinar offers analysis and insight into trade-war/tariff negotiations, global and U.S. economic indicators and stock and bond markets and also answers live questions from its attendees.

Jim Lowell on the Nightly Business Report

Adviser Investments’ Chief Investment Officer Jim Lowell joined NBR Market Monitor Friday, August 17.

Walmart up 9%; J.C. Penney down 27%

Brian Mackey, deputy director of research at Adviser Investments, has the market analysis for Thursday, August 16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 1.6% advance led gains across the major U.S. stock indexes today; the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite closed the day up 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively. Meanwhile, Walmart rose 9% after beating both earnings and revenue expectations. J.C. Penney’s stock plummeted 27% on disappointing earnings, wider loss expectations and the retailer’s ongoing leadership vacuum following the May resignation of Chief Executive Officer Marvin Ellison.

Macy’s Drops 16% Despite Strong Quarterly Sales

Alexis Melvin, associate at Adviser Investments, has the market analysis for Wednesday, August 15. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite rebounded slightly from steep losses earlier in the day but still closed with respective declines of 0.5%, 0.7% and 1.2%. Despite raising its full-year forecast and beating expectations with strong quarterly sales, Macy’s dropped 16% on concerns about delivery and promotional expenses. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department released its retail sales data for July, revealing a 6.4% year-over-year increase.

Small Business Optimism Near 45-Year High

David Mastroianni, strategic account executive at Adviser Investments, has the market analysis for Tuesday, August 14. Major U.S. stock indexes advanced, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite gaining 0.5%, 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported quarterly household debt data, revealing a 3.5% increase—up to a new record of $13.3 trillion—as well as declining student loan delinquency rates. Meanwhile, the National Federation of Independent Business released its Small Business Optimism Index, which reached its second-highest level in the survey’s 45-year history. On the earnings front, Home Depot closed the day down 0.5% despite exceeding both earnings and revenue expectations and raising its full-year outlook.

Turkish Lira Falls Another 7%

Charlie Toole, vice president at Adviser Investments, has the market analysis for Monday, August 13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite each declined: 0.5%, 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively. The Turkish lira fell another 7% today (in addition to yesterday’s 12% decline); however, unlike international markets, dips across major U.S. indexes were not driven by fear-based selling—as evidenced by declines in traditional safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds. Despite emerging market concerns, U.S. markets continue to be buoyed by second quarter earnings’ 25% year-over-year growth rate as well as the economy’s anticipated growth trajectory.

Dropbox Down 10% Despite Beating Expectations

Megan Higgins, manager at Adviser Investments, has the market analysis for Friday, August 10. U.S. and global markets declined in response to the Turkish lira’s steep value reduction (down 50% against the U.S. dollar thus far this year). Turkey currently ranks as the 17th largest global economy; however, its impact on U.S. companies is significantly less than those in the euro zone. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index was released, indicating annualized growth just under 3%. We also saw Dropbox fall 10% in early trading—despite beating second quarter earnings and revenue expectations—following the announced departure of Chief Operating Officer Dennis Woodside.

Contentious U.S. Mid-Term Elections Likely

Adviser Investments’ Chief Investment Officer Jim Lowell joined CNBC Street Signs Thursday, explaining why he believes this is a good time for investors to take a “more cautious” approach to portfolio allocation. Jim anticipates an increase in trade-war-related uncertainty as we approach what will likely be a contentious midterm election season. Despite those near-term concerns, however, Jim notes that the longer-term fundamentals of earnings and economic data remain healthy.

Consumer Comfort Index Marks 17-Year High

Chris Hagan, vice president at Adviser Investments, has the market analysis for Thursday, August 9. There was minimal trading volume across all the major U.S. stock indexes today.  Bloomberg released its Consumer Comfort Index indicating that U.S. consumer confidence is at a 17-year high as a result of a strong labor market, ongoing economic growth, low gas prices and other factors. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans noted that potential inflation gains are “nothing to be worried about” as rates normalize.

80% of S&P 500 Companies Beat Estimates

Rick Winters, vice president at Adviser Investments, has the market analysis for Wednesday, August 8. Despite only minor movement on the major U.S. stock indexes, the NASDAQ’s fractional gains propelled it to the index’s longest winning streak since March. In terms of earnings reports, we’ve now seen 80% of S&P 500-listed companies that have reported beat estimates, reflecting earnings and sales growth rates of 25% and 10%, respectively. Reporting today, CVS gained over 4% after topping expectations and raising its 2018 adjusted earnings outlook to $6.98 to $7.08 a share versus the previous range of $6.87 to $7.08. Meanwhile, Tesla’s stock fell 3% on reports of a potential Securities and Exchange Commission probe into Elon Musk’s recent Twitter post.

Tesla Surges 11% on Buyout Tweet

Ryan Christensen, account executive at Adviser Investments, has the market analysis for Tuesday, August 7. Solid earnings continued to impact major U.S. stock indexes with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.5% and both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ gaining around 0.3%. In terms of significant reporting, Disney ended the day down 2% after missing earnings and revenue expectations. Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s Twitter post regarding Tesla’s potential privatization ignited a frenzy of ethical and regulatory commentary—as well as stock momentum: Tesla’s shares surged 11% today.

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