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Chart of the Week: The Reality of Wartime Returns

A month ago, Russia invaded Ukraine; surely stocks are down and bonds are up since then, right? Not quite. This week’s chart plots the returns of a few major markets as measured by Vanguard’s index funds. Going region by region for stocks: European equities fell the hardest at first—no surprise there—but after …

Recession: Imminent or Avoidable?

Please note: This update was prepared on Friday, March 11, 2022, prior to the market’s close. Headlines drove market action this week. They focused primarily on the latest developments in Russia’s war on Ukraine’s cities and citizenry, but also on still-rising inflation. And talk about volatility! On Monday, the NASDAQ Composite entered …

Recession: Imminent or Avoidable?

Headlines drove market action this week. They focused primarily on the latest developments in Russia’s war on Ukraine’s cities and citizenry, but also on still-rising inflation. And talk about volatility! On Monday, the NASDAQ Composite entered a bear market (off more than 20% from its November high) and the S&P 500 slipped …

Fundamentals vs. the Fog of War

Please note: This update was prepared on Friday, March 4, 2022, prior to the market’s close. The resilience of the Ukrainian resistance has inspired the world even as Russian aggression intensifies, threatening citizens, cities and critical infrastructure. While hardly on the same plane, Wall Street resilience has also been tested, with major …

Fundamentals vs. the Fog of War

The resilience of the Ukrainian resistance has inspired the world even as Russian aggression intensifies, threatening citizens, cities and critical infrastructure. While hardly on the same plane, Wall Street resilience has also been tested, with major market indices quickly moving from loss to gain and gain to loss day to day. When …

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Despite Human Toll, Markets Discount War

Please note: This update was prepared on Friday, February 25, 2022, prior to the market’s close. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has already claimed hundreds of innocent lives and now threatens to displace millions and spark a humanitarian crisis in Eastern Europe. Having priced in an attack and economic sanctions but not …

Despite Human Toll, Markets Discount War

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has already claimed hundreds of innocent lives and now threatens to displace millions and spark a humanitarian crisis in Eastern Europe. Having priced in an attack and economic sanctions but not a full-scale invasion, investment markets reacted rationally on Thursday as events unfolded: Stocks sank, gold rose …

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