Article Chart of the Week: How Common Are Stock Market Drawdowns? By Jeffrey DeMaso — May 16, 2022 While investing in the stock market has been rewarding over time, it often doesn’t feel that way. And it’s no wonder—if we measure from prior highs, the S&P 500 index has spent almost half of the time down 5% or more from its peak over the last four-plus decades. Here are the … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Article Chart of the Week: I-Bonds vs. TIPS—What’s the Best Choice? By Jeffrey DeMaso — May 9, 2022 I-Bonds have gone mainstream—but are they the best option for fixed-income investors bedeviled by high inflation? As we discussed in our recent primer, I-Bonds are U.S. government savings bonds that pay a rate of interest that adjusts every six months based on inflation. Right now, that rate is 9.62%. Given … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Article Chart of the Week: Are We Headed Toward Recession? By Jeffrey DeMaso — May 2, 2022 Does the negative GDP growth rate in Q1 mean we are in a recession? I don’t think so. First off, that 1.4% annual pace means the economy contracted just 0.4% in the first three months of the year—that’s a blip on the radar. Second, that decline is in “real GDP,” or GDP … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Audio How Is the War in Ukraine Affecting Markets? April 27, 2022 We’ve seen geopolitical events impact the markets plenty of times before, but is the scale of the event and the ripple effects on the global economy different this time? Chief Investment Officer Jim Lowell and Senior Research Analyst Liz Laprade looked at the impact of the war on markets foreign and domestic … Listen Nowkeyboard_arrow_right
Article Does Investor Sentiment Predict Performance? By Jeffrey DeMaso — April 25, 2022 Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway fame tells us to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. If that’s the case, it’s time to be greedy! Each week for the last 35 years or so, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) has been asking its members whether … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Article Chart of the Week: How Stocks Perform During Recessions By Jeffrey DeMaso — April 18, 2022 We’ve mentioned why we think it's too soon to make the call about a recession—and nothing has changed on that front. But since the topic is trending in the headlines, I took a shot at creating a road map based on the historical record of how stocks perform during recessions. Over … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Video Adam Johnson: Why I’m Still Bullish By Adam Johnson — April 13, 2022 Portfolio Manager Adam Johnson made his case for why he remains bullish on stocks despite high inflation. He explains some signals that might be indicating that things may be turning around for the bond market.Watch Nowkeyboard_arrow_right
Article Chart of the Week: Is the Yield Curve a Sell Sign for Stocks? By Jeffrey DeMaso — April 11, 2022 The yield curve and recession talk are all over the media—heck, it was the topic of my chart of the week seven days ago (which is worth a read for a recap on what the yield curve is). While I’m in the camp that they yield curve is not yet inverted, … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Podcast Lessons From a Volatile First Quarter April 6, 2022 FEATURING Dan Wiener and Jim Lowell The war in Ukraine, lockdowns in China, rising inflation and talk of a looming recession—bad news bingo roiled markets through the first three months of 2022. In this episode of The Adviser You Can Talk To Podcast, Dan Wiener and Jim Lowell sit down to discuss … Listen Nowkeyboard_arrow_right
Article Chart of the Week: Does a Yield-Curve Inversion Mean Recession Is Coming? By Jeffrey DeMaso — April 4, 2022 The handwringing over a “yield-curve inversion” presaging recession has begun. Be prepared to hear a whole lot more about inversions in the weeks, months and quarters ahead. First, a definition. The “yield curve” refers to a line on a chart mapping the yields of Treasury bonds of various maturities. Most of … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right