Article Chart of the Week: Market Responses to Outstanding Months By Jeffrey DeMaso — August 15, 2022 Vanguard’s 500 Index fund (a proxy for the S&P 500 index, since you can’t invest directly in an index) gained 9.2% in July—the fund’s 13th best month since its 1976 inception. Given that the S&P 500 fell more than 20% in the first half of the year, the market was probably “due” for … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Article Chart of the Week: The Better Recession Question By Jeffrey DeMaso — August 8, 2022 The economy—measured by real GDP—contracted in both the first and second quarters this year. So, are we in a recession or not? We say: Who cares? The question investors should be asking is “What do we do with the information?” To help answer this question, I identified past periods when GDP went … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Article Chart of the Week: How the Bond Market Prices In Fed Policy By Jeffrey DeMaso — July 29, 2022 Traders and investors spend a lot of energy trying to predict the Federal Reserve’s actions. The Fed also spends a fair amount of effort telegraphing what it is planning to do; an unwritten policy is to try to avoid “surprising” the market. The result? By the time the Fed acts, bond … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Article Chart of the Week: A Bullish Case for Resisting Market Timing By Jeffrey DeMaso — Updated: July 28, 2022 Stocks are up 6.4% this month as of Wednesday night. Is this the beginning of a new bull market or is it simply a head fake before the next pullback? If you have money to invest, that may feel like a key question, but for investors with time to be patient, it’s … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Article Chart of the Week: The Earnings Expectations vs. Reality Gap By Charlie Toole — July 18, 2022 Wall Street analysts expect companies in the S&P 500 to report profits 4% higher than one year ago. If what’s past is prologue, we can expect two things: (1) That estimate is wrong and (2) it’s possibly too low. Over the last four years, Wall Street analysts have made meteorologists look like soothsayers. On … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Article Chart of the Week: Bond Traders Expect Lower Inflation By Jeffrey DeMaso — July 11, 2022 Most of us are concerned about how long inflation will remain elevated. But the Fed’s army of Ph.D.s hasn’t had much success trying to forecast its rise or fall. In the absence of a solid model for predicting inflation, I like to keep an eye on the difference between the yields on … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Article Chart of the Week: Why Home Prices Are So High By Jeffrey DeMaso — July 5, 2022 We often get asked when home prices will stop rising. The short answer: When more houses come onto the market. This week’s chart was inspired by Bill McBride’s Calculated Risk blog—my go-to resource on the housing market. The chart neatly shows the Econ 101 relationship between supply and demand. When supply (the inventory of … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Podcast Practical Steps to Beat the Bear June 29, 2022 FEATURING Jeff DeMaso and Charlie Toole In markets like these, about the only thing most people feel like investing in is antacid. But in this episode of The Adviser You Can Talk To Podcast, Jeff DeMaso and Charlie Toole do have a few practical steps you can take to help protect your … Listen Nowkeyboard_arrow_right
Article Chart of the Week: How Low Will Sentiment Sink? By Jeffrey DeMaso — June 21, 2022 It feels like everyone’s got a frown on their face lately. The University of Michigan has been asking consumers how they feel about the economy for decades. The response this month was the most pessimistic ever recorded. You read that right: Consumers are more concerned today than they have been at any … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Podcast Navigating the Bear Market June 15, 2022 The bear is back. Is a recession close behind? Or are we in one already and just don’t know it? And will inflation ever come down? It’s been a bruising ride for investors so far in 2022, and the Fed’s sought-after soft landing seems ever more unlikely. Steve Johnson and Dan Wiener … Listen Nowkeyboard_arrow_right