Powell Casts Pall on Wall Street April 25, 2022 Weekly Update elonmusk, fed, housing market, inflation, recession, Weekly Update, yield curve Please note: This update was prepared on Friday, April 22, 2022, prior to the market’s close. The zeitgeist is shifting. An abrupt end to federal mask mandates—provoking cheers (from some)—was just one sign. Airline stocks rallied after reporting robust expectations for future earnings. Not so for the stay-at-home darlings. Netflix and Shopify … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Powell Casts Pall on Wall Street April 22, 2022 Weekly Update elonmusk, fed, housing market, inflation, recession, Weekly Update, yield curve The zeitgeist is shifting. An abrupt end to federal mask mandates—provoking cheers (from some)—was just one sign. Airline stocks rallied after reporting robust expectations for future earnings. Not so for the stay-at-home darlings. Netflix and Shopify saw their stocks hit hard as their businesses floundered; the same was true for Peloton and … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Has U.S. Inflation Peaked? April 18, 2022 Weekly Update consumer, i bonds, inflation, recession, state taxes, Weekly Update, yield curve Please note: This update was prepared on Thursday, April 14, 2022, prior to the market’s close. First-quarter earnings reports, along with improved consumer sentiment, were an early Easter egg for investors this week, arriving in time to temper the latest inflation report. Overall, the earnings news was solid enough to break a … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Has U.S. Inflation Peaked? April 14, 2022 Weekly Update consumer, i bonds, inflation, recession, state taxes, Weekly Update, yield curve First-quarter earnings reports, along with improved consumer sentiment, were an early Easter egg for investors this week, arriving in time to temper the latest inflation report. Overall, the earnings news was solid enough to break a three-day losing streak for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ on Wednesday, with travel stocks rallying … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Is the Yield Curve a Sell Sign for Stocks? April 11, 2022 Economy and the Markets bonds, Chart of the Week, Jeff DeMaso, recession, stocks, yield curve The yield curve and recession talk are all over the media—heck, it was the topic of my chart of the week seven days ago (which is worth a read for a recap on what the yield curve is). While I’m in the camp that they yield curve is not yet inverted, … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
‘Snake Eyes’—Inflation and Inversion—Rattle Markets April 11, 2022 Weekly Update elonmusk, fed, housing market, inflation, recession, Weekly Update, yield curve Please note: This update was prepared on Friday, April 8, 2022, prior to the market’s close. Wall Street was a-twitter this week. But eccentric billionaire Elon Musk’s aggressive play for a stake in social media giant Twitter (a move that earned Musk a seat on their board) and the stock’s 27% one-day … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
‘Snake Eyes’—Inflation and Inversion—Rattle Markets April 8, 2022 Weekly Update elonmusk, fed, housing market, inflation, recession, Weekly Update, yield curve Wall Street was a-twitter this week. But eccentric billionaire Elon Musk’s aggressive play for a stake in social media giant Twitter (a move that earned Musk a seat on their board) and the stock’s 27% one-day gain wasn’t the main topic of discussion. Instead, two big I’s drove the conversation: Inflation and … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Does a Yield-Curve Inversion Mean Recession Is Coming? April 4, 2022 Economy and the Markets bond yields, Chart of the Week, chartoftheweek, Jeff DeMaso, recession, yield curve The handwringing over a “yield-curve inversion” presaging recession has begun. Be prepared to hear a whole lot more about inversions in the weeks, months and quarters ahead. First, a definition. The “yield curve” refers to a line on a chart mapping the yields of Treasury bonds of various maturities. Most of … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Is Recession in Bloom This Spring? April 4, 2022 Weekly Update bonds, recession, stocks, Weekly Update, yield curve Please note: This update was prepared on Friday, April 1, 2022, prior to the market’s close. The first quarter of 2022 is in the rearview mirror, and now the punditry and pseudo-analysis begins. Last night’s headlines were abuzz: “Worst Quarter in Two Years,” they intoned. But this is hardly the dramatic moment … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Is Recession in Bloom This Spring? April 1, 2022 Weekly Update bonds, recession, stocks, Weekly Update, yield curve The first quarter of 2022 is in the rearview mirror, and now the punditry and pseudo-analysis begins. Last night’s headlines were abuzz: “Worst Quarter in Two Years,” they intoned. But this is hardly the dramatic moment in the markets it’s being made out to be. Looking at every three-month period since its … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right