Chart of the Week: Bulls Outrun Bears May 23, 2022 Economy and the Markets bear market, bull market, Chart of the Week, Jeff DeMaso, S&P 500 The S&P 500 index dodged bear country today, but I think we can all agree that it’s felt like a done deal for weeks. While bear markets are challenging, one way I “bear” them is by not thinking of them as punishment. Bear markets are the fare we pay to ride the … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
The Bear Market Beckons May 20, 2022 Weekly Update bear market, Jeff DeMaso, recession, stock market, Weekly Update The bears inched closer to overrunning Wall Street this week. On Friday, the S&P 500 dipped into bear market territory before closing just above the threshold—namely, a decline of 20% from the previous market high. The driver: Worries about economic recession. Although the beast has been kept at bay for weeks, that … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
The Bear Market Beckons May 20, 2022 Weekly Update bear market, Jeff DeMaso, recession, stock market, Weekly Update Please note: This update was prepared on Friday, May 20, 2022, prior to the market’s close. The bears inched closer to overrunning Wall Street this week. On Friday, the S&P 500 dipped into bear market territory before closing just above the threshold—namely, a decline of 20% from the previous market high. The … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: How Common Are Stock Market Drawdowns? May 16, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, Jeff DeMaso, market drawdowns, S&P 500, stock market, stocks While investing in the stock market has been rewarding over time, it often doesn’t feel that way. And it’s no wonder—if we measure from prior highs, the S&P 500 index has spent almost half of the time down 5% or more from its peak over the last four-plus decades. Here are the … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Crypto: Making a Play for Your 401(k) May 15, 2022 401(k) 401(k), bitcoin, Jeff DeMaso, Weekly Question This week’s reader question: Does bitcoin belong in my 401(k) portfolio? This has been a hot topic since Fidelity announced it was queuing up to allow companies to include bitcoin in their 401(k) plans. The Department of Labor—which regulates 401(k) plans—has cast shade on the idea. Nonetheless, company boards are weighing … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: I-Bonds vs. TIPS—What’s the Best Choice? May 9, 2022 Bonds bonds, Chart of the Week, i bonds, inflation, Jeff DeMaso, TIPS I-Bonds have gone mainstream—but are they the best option for fixed-income investors bedeviled by high inflation? As we discussed in our recent primer, I-Bonds are U.S. government savings bonds that pay a rate of interest that adjusts every six months based on inflation. Right now, that rate is 9.62%. Given … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Are We Headed Toward Recession? May 2, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, gdp, Jeff DeMaso, recession Does the negative GDP growth rate in Q1 mean we are in a recession? I don’t think so. First off, that 1.4% annual pace means the economy contracted just 0.4% in the first three months of the year—that’s a blip on the radar. Second, that decline is in “real GDP,” or GDP … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Does Investor Sentiment Predict Performance? April 25, 2022 Economy and the Markets bear market, bull market, Chart of the Week, fear, greed, investor sentiment, Jeff DeMaso, recession, Warren Buffett Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway fame tells us to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. If that’s the case, it’s time to be greedy! Each week for the last 35 years or so, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) has been asking its members whether … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: How Stocks Perform During Recessions April 18, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, Jeff DeMaso, recession We’ve mentioned why we think it's too soon to make the call about a recession—and nothing has changed on that front. But since the topic is trending in the headlines, I took a shot at creating a road map based on the historical record of how stocks perform during recessions. Over … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Is the Yield Curve a Sell Sign for Stocks? April 11, 2022 Economy and the Markets bonds, Chart of the Week, Jeff DeMaso, recession, stocks, yield curve The yield curve and recession talk are all over the media—heck, it was the topic of my chart of the week seven days ago (which is worth a read for a recap on what the yield curve is). While I’m in the camp that they yield curve is not yet inverted, … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Does a Yield-Curve Inversion Mean Recession Is Coming? April 4, 2022 Economy and the Markets bond yields, Chart of the Week, chartoftheweek, Jeff DeMaso, recession, yield curve The handwringing over a “yield-curve inversion” presaging recession has begun. Be prepared to hear a whole lot more about inversions in the weeks, months and quarters ahead. First, a definition. The “yield curve” refers to a line on a chart mapping the yields of Treasury bonds of various maturities. Most of … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: The Reality of Wartime Returns March 28, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, chartoftheweek, Jeff DeMaso, recession, russia, Ukraine, war A month ago, Russia invaded Ukraine; surely stocks are down and bonds are up since then, right? Not quite. This week’s chart plots the returns of a few major markets as measured by Vanguard’s index funds. Going region by region for stocks: European equities fell the hardest at first—no surprise there—but after … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right