Hike, Pause or Cut? Preparing for the Fed’s Next Move June 27, 2023 Economy and the Markets federal reserve, interest rates Bond traders are already betting on several Fed policy moves to lower rates starting this fall. Read more here.Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
The End of Interest-Rate Hikes: Are We There Yet? May 11, 2023 Bonds bonds, fed funds rate, federal reserve, interest rates, rate cuts, rate hikes Curious bond investors everywhere want to know: Are we there yet? “There” refers to the end of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate-hiking cycle. It’s not a certainty, but our view is that the Fed is on the cusp of shifting policy. The economy may be weakening, which supports this view. Softening data … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
2023: A Better Year for Bonds? January 11, 2023 Bonds bonds, Chris Keith, federal reserve, inflation and bonds, managed bonds As a bond investor, the best thing I can say about 2022 is that it’s over! And we believe 2023 will be a better year for bonds. After years of artificially low interest rates, the days of reckoning came in 2022. First slowly, with one rate hike of “just” 25 basis points. … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
The Bond Investor’s New Mantra November 10, 2022 Bonds bond outlook, bonds, Chris Keith, federal reserve, inflation and bonds Don’t allow perfect to be the enemy of good. Voltaire, the French writer and philosopher, is commonly thought to have made this important point first. Though he probably wasn’t referencing the bond market, his thinking is appropriate at this point in the current cycle: There’s no need for investors to wait for … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Bond Talk: State of the Markets September 27, 2022 Bonds bond outlook, bonds, Chris Keith, fed funds rate, federal reserve, inflation and bonds Recently I sat with Adviser’s interim chief marketing officer and director of content, Jacque Murphy, for a Q&A on the state of the bond market. Here are highlights from the discussion. Jacque Murphy: Let’s begin with bond performance year-to-date. What were the biggest surprises for you? Chris Keith: To get right … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: How the Bond Market Prices In Fed Policy July 29, 2022 Bonds bonds, Chart of the Week, federal reserve, Jeff DeMaso Traders and investors spend a lot of energy trying to predict the Federal Reserve’s actions. The Fed also spends a fair amount of effort telegraphing what it is planning to do; an unwritten policy is to try to avoid “surprising” the market. The result? By the time the Fed acts, bond … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Bonds Are Acting Like Bonds Again June 2, 2022 Bonds 10-year treasury, bond sell-off, bonds, Chris Keith, federal reserve, inflation It’s amazing what a turnaround in performance can do for the value of your holdings…and for your peace of mind. That’s right, bonds started behaving more like, well, bonds again in May and investors breathed a sigh of relief. Clearly there’s been a change in market sentiment, which is something I touched … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Your Bond Questions Answered May 11, 2022 Bonds bond funds vs. bonds, bonds, fed funds rate, federal reserve, inflation Concerns about the state of the bond market abound—with good reason. This is the worst start to a year for bonds in decades. In our recent webinar, Pain, Promise and the Future of Fixed Income (click here to watch the replay), I addressed the state of fixed-income affairs. Since then, … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Bond Outlook Q2 2022 April 18, 2022 Bonds bonds, federal reserve, inflation, managed bonds Q2 Bond Market Outlook I won’t sugarcoat it—Q1 bond market performance was disappointing for most investors. Bonds are supposed to be the safety buffer in a portfolio, but they didn’t act that way to start the year. Instead, our portfolios got a flat tire during rush hour—making a frustrating experience even worse. … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: The Formula for Fed Action January 24, 2022 Investing federal reserve, inflation, Jeff DeMaso, unemployment By Director of Research Jeff DeMaso It really shouldn’t be a surprise that the Federal Reserve is gearing up to raise the fed funds rate. The central bank has a dual mandate of price stability and full employment. With consumer prices having risen 7% in 2021 and the unemployment rate clocking … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Will Higher Inflation Sink Stock Prices? October 26, 2021 Economy and the Markets federal reserve, headline inflation, inflation, webinar According to a recent CNBC survey, inflation is tied with COVID-19 as Americans’ biggest concern. And investors want to know: Will higher inflation and higher borrowing costs negatively affect stock prices? Here’s what Research Analyst Liz Laprade said in our recent webinar, Booster Shots, Market Shocks and the End … Listen Nowkeyboard_arrow_right
How Long Is ‘Transitory’? October 18, 2021 Economy and the Markets federal reserve, headline inflation, inflation, Weekly Question This week’s reader question: How long will elevated inflation last? Is transitory still the right way to think about it? To say that this is a hotly debated topic is an understatement. Many analysts and investors view today’s inflation environment as “transitory”—but what that actually means is … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right