Chart of the Week: How Stocks Perform During Recessions April 18, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, Jeff DeMaso, recession We’ve mentioned why we think it's too soon to make the call about a recession—and nothing has changed on that front. But since the topic is trending in the headlines, I took a shot at creating a road map based on the historical record of how stocks perform during recessions. Over … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Is the Yield Curve a Sell Sign for Stocks? April 11, 2022 Economy and the Markets bonds, Chart of the Week, Jeff DeMaso, recession, stocks, yield curve The yield curve and recession talk are all over the media—heck, it was the topic of my chart of the week seven days ago (which is worth a read for a recap on what the yield curve is). While I’m in the camp that they yield curve is not yet inverted, … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Does a Yield-Curve Inversion Mean Recession Is Coming? April 4, 2022 Economy and the Markets bond yields, Chart of the Week, chartoftheweek, Jeff DeMaso, recession, yield curve The handwringing over a “yield-curve inversion” presaging recession has begun. Be prepared to hear a whole lot more about inversions in the weeks, months and quarters ahead. First, a definition. The “yield curve” refers to a line on a chart mapping the yields of Treasury bonds of various maturities. Most of … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: The Reality of Wartime Returns March 28, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, chartoftheweek, Jeff DeMaso, recession, russia, Ukraine, war A month ago, Russia invaded Ukraine; surely stocks are down and bonds are up since then, right? Not quite. This week’s chart plots the returns of a few major markets as measured by Vanguard’s index funds. Going region by region for stocks: European equities fell the hardest at first—no surprise there—but after … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: After 2021 Lull, Volatility Is Back March 21, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, chartoftheweek, Jeff DeMaso, Market volatility As a client of Adviser Investments, you never have to face volatile or uncertain periods alone.Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Will High Gasoline Prices Lead to Recession? March 14, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, chartoftheweek, energy, gas, Jeff DeMaso, oil, recession As was drilled into me in Econ 101, two factors drive prices—supply and demand. The past two years have certainly provided professors of the dismal science ample real-world examples we can all relate to—particularly at the gas pump. If demand dries up, then prices fall. During the initial COVID-19 economic lockdown in … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Keeping an Eye on the Homes Front March 7, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, Jeff DeMaso, politics, sell signal People are buying houses at a clip last seen in the housing market bubble of the mid-aughts. Do we think this is another bubble in the making? No. Housing has been misaligned since the pandemic struck—first demand dried up, and then the market rebounded rapidly. With time, and as we return to … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Is Global Strife a Signal to Sell? February 28, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, Jeff DeMaso, politics, sell signal As gut-wrenching as it is, this is not the first time in history that war has broken out in Europe. Is a major geopolitical crisis always a sell signal? To help answer this question and provide some context, I hit the history books and marked the onset of military conflicts (or near … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Debunking Dollar-Cost Averaging February 18, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, compounding, Jeff DeMaso, market timing, portfolio manager Last Friday’s Chart of the Week got me thinking about the age-old investing question: If you have a chunk of money you want to put in the markets, should you invest it all in one go (in a lump sum) or spread it out over time (dollar-cost averaging)? To compare the … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Making Up for Poor Timing February 14, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, compounding, Jeff DeMaso, market timing, portfolio manager I thought I was getting a jump on things by contributing to my nine-month-old son’s 529 plan at the start of the year. Then I caught myself thinking: If only I had waited a month or simply been a little slower to get my act together, I could’ve bought in at lower … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: A Lesson From Warren Buffett February 7, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, Jeff DeMaso, outperformance, portfolio manager Why can’t investors own the “consistently best-performing funds”? We certainly would if we could, but it’s far easier said than done. At Adviser Investments, we work incredibly hard to partner with managers who will outperform over time. However, expecting the managers we invest with (or any manager, really) to outperform the S&P … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Should You Heed the January Barometer? January 31, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, Jeff DeMaso, market timing, S&P 500, The January Barometer With the S&P 500 on pace to notch a loss in January, prepare to see a lot of articles citing the “January Barometer.” The idea behind this old Wall Street fairy tale is: “As goes January, so goes the entire calendar year.” Ignore all of this nonsense. Since the S&P 500 index’s … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right