Is Bitcoin Dead? October 10, 2022 Economy and the Markets bear market, Chart of the Week, Jeff DeMaso When stocks are down a lot, trader and investor emotions are on edge. When emotions are running high, the market is poised for big swings.Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Best and Worst Market Days Stick Together October 10, 2022 Economy and the Markets bear market, Chart of the Week, Jeff DeMaso When stocks are down a lot, trader and investor emotions are on edge. When emotions are running high, the market is poised for big swings.Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: High-Yield Bonds Say Not To Panic October 3, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, high-yield bonds, Jeff DeMaso So, while the high-yield market suggests investors are on edge, we also conclude that traders are not overly worried about the road ahead.Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: When Will Inflation Go Away? September 19, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, inflation, Jeff DeMaso Getting inflation directionally right seems better than being precisely wrong when trying to figure out when inflation will go away.Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Service Sector Sails Along September 12, 2022 Economy and the Markets Charlie Toole, Chart of the Week The folks who run service businesses around the U.S. aren’t buying the recession story.Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Profits at a Record September 2, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, inflation, Jeff DeMaso While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stole the show in Jackson Hole last week and had onlookers reevaluating the probability of a recession ahead, the most recent data on corporate profits flew under the radar. In fact, U.S. companies were more profitable than ever in the second quarter, according to the Bureau … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Inflation Rates and Stock Prices August 22, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, inflation, Jeff DeMaso The recent report that headline inflation fell to 8.5% in July from 9.1% in June had tongues wagging about the U.S. economy having passed through “peak inflation.” Yet even if inflation has peaked, it is likely to remain elevated for months to come. From an investment perspective, though, what’s important isn’t the … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Market Responses to Outstanding Months August 15, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, Jeff DeMaso, market rebound, timing Vanguard’s 500 Index fund (a proxy for the S&P 500 index, since you can’t invest directly in an index) gained 9.2% in July—the fund’s 13th best month since its 1976 inception. Given that the S&P 500 fell more than 20% in the first half of the year, the market was probably “due” for … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: The Better Recession Question August 8, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, gdp, Jeff DeMaso, recession, timing The economy—measured by real GDP—contracted in both the first and second quarters this year. So, are we in a recession or not? We say: Who cares? The question investors should be asking is “What do we do with the information?” To help answer this question, I identified past periods when GDP went … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: How the Bond Market Prices In Fed Policy July 29, 2022 Bonds bonds, Chart of the Week, federal reserve, Jeff DeMaso Traders and investors spend a lot of energy trying to predict the Federal Reserve’s actions. The Fed also spends a fair amount of effort telegraphing what it is planning to do; an unwritten policy is to try to avoid “surprising” the market. The result? By the time the Fed acts, bond … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: A Bullish Case for Resisting Market Timing July 25, 2022 Economy and the Markets bottoming, bull market, Chart of the Week, Jeff DeMaso, market timing, stock market, stocks Stocks are up 6.4% this month as of Wednesday night. Is this the beginning of a new bull market or is it simply a head fake before the next pullback? If you have money to invest, that may feel like a key question, but for investors with time to be patient, it’s … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: The Earnings Expectations vs. Reality Gap July 18, 2022 Economy and the Markets Charlie Toole, Chart of the Week, corporate earnings, earnings, Earnings season Wall Street analysts expect companies in the S&P 500 to report profits 4% higher than one year ago. If what’s past is prologue, we can expect two things: (1) That estimate is wrong and (2) it’s possibly too low. Over the last four years, Wall Street analysts have made meteorologists look like soothsayers. On … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right