Chart of the Week: What Follows a 10%-Plus Decline? June 27, 2022 Investing 60/40 approach, bear market, Chart of the Week, diversification, Jeff DeMaso By now, you are probably well aware that stocks have had a rough first half of the year. But most investors are invested in a blend of stocks and bonds—so how have balanced portfolios fared in down markets like this one? Pundits have pronounced the classic balanced portfolio dead for years. (Wall … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: How Low Will Sentiment Sink? June 21, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, consumer sentiment, growth, Jeff DeMaso, recession, U.S. consumer It feels like everyone’s got a frown on their face lately. The University of Michigan has been asking consumers how they feel about the economy for decades. The response this month was the most pessimistic ever recorded. You read that right: Consumers are more concerned today than they have been at any … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Does Following the Dollar Make Sense? June 13, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, currency, Jeff DeMaso, U.S. dollar With the U.S. dollar trading around a 20-year high, it’s no wonder the greenback is in the news. Will the dollar continue to strengthen or is it set up for a fall? I don’t have a crystal ball. But it isn’t an idle question for investors trying to figure out when foreign … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Consumers Expect Higher Inflation—Will They Be Right? June 6, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, consumer, expectations, inflation, Jeff DeMaso Filled up on gas lately? Then you know: Inflation has been hurting consumers. What makes the recent bout of rising prices so irksome is that it was largely unexpected. For nearly a decade, the New York branch of the Federal Reserve has been asking consumers how high they think inflation will be … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: A More Manic Mr. Market May 31, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, Jeff DeMaso, Market volatility, stocks If the stock market seems more volatile this year, that’s because it is. Since its 1957 inception, the S&P 500 index has typically moved about 0.7% up or down on any given day. So far this year, the S&P’s average daily move has been 1.2%. What's causing this market volatility? If 2022 … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Bulls Outrun Bears May 23, 2022 Economy and the Markets bear market, bull market, Chart of the Week, Jeff DeMaso, S&P 500 The S&P 500 index dodged bear country today, but I think we can all agree that it’s felt like a done deal for weeks. While bear markets are challenging, one way I “bear” them is by not thinking of them as punishment. Bear markets are the fare we pay to ride the … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: How Common Are Stock Market Drawdowns? May 16, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, Jeff DeMaso, market drawdowns, S&P 500, stock market, stocks While investing in the stock market has been rewarding over time, it often doesn’t feel that way. And it’s no wonder—if we measure from prior highs, the S&P 500 index has spent almost half of the time down 5% or more from its peak over the last four-plus decades. Here are the … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: I-Bonds vs. TIPS—What’s the Best Choice? May 9, 2022 Bonds bonds, Chart of the Week, i bonds, inflation, Jeff DeMaso, TIPS I-Bonds have gone mainstream—but are they the best option for fixed-income investors bedeviled by high inflation? As we discussed in our recent primer, I-Bonds are U.S. government savings bonds that pay a rate of interest that adjusts every six months based on inflation. Right now, that rate is 9.62%. Given … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Are We Headed Toward Recession? May 2, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, gdp, Jeff DeMaso, recession Does the negative GDP growth rate in Q1 mean we are in a recession? I don’t think so. First off, that 1.4% annual pace means the economy contracted just 0.4% in the first three months of the year—that’s a blip on the radar. Second, that decline is in “real GDP,” or GDP … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Does Investor Sentiment Predict Performance? April 25, 2022 Economy and the Markets bear market, bull market, Chart of the Week, fear, greed, investor sentiment, Jeff DeMaso, recession, Warren Buffett Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway fame tells us to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. If that’s the case, it’s time to be greedy! Each week for the last 35 years or so, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) has been asking its members whether … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: How Stocks Perform During Recessions April 18, 2022 Economy and the Markets Chart of the Week, Jeff DeMaso, recession We’ve mentioned why we think it's too soon to make the call about a recession—and nothing has changed on that front. But since the topic is trending in the headlines, I took a shot at creating a road map based on the historical record of how stocks perform during recessions. Over … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right
Chart of the Week: Is the Yield Curve a Sell Sign for Stocks? April 11, 2022 Economy and the Markets bonds, Chart of the Week, Jeff DeMaso, recession, stocks, yield curve The yield curve and recession talk are all over the media—heck, it was the topic of my chart of the week seven days ago (which is worth a read for a recap on what the yield curve is). While I’m in the camp that they yield curve is not yet inverted, … Read Morekeyboard_arrow_right