What Shape Will the Recovery Take? - Adviser Investments

What Shape Will the Recovery Take?

May 19, 2020

V-shaped? U-shaped? W-shaped? You’ll hear a lot of letters from pundits predicting what the market recovery will ultimately look like. Vice President Charlie Toole discussed his measured stance on market prognostication in our recent quarterly webinar*: Separating Pandemic Noise From Investment Signals.

Please enjoy the excerpt below and click here for the full webinar replay to hear more.

* * * * *

Charlie Toole: All bear markets come to an end. But predicting when we recover and what that recovery will look like is a fool’s errand. Like you, I’ve seen a lot of predictions on the type of recovery that we’ll have. Is it going to be a U-shape, a W-shape, a V-shape? It’s an alphabet soup of letters. I’ve even seen a prediction for an L-shaped recovery, which is really no recovery at all.

But I expect this recovery will be like other recoveries that we’ve had in the past. A version of two steps forward, one step back. Many think that we had a V-shaped recovery after the Great Recession in 2008–2009, but it wasn’t. Yes, we had a quick rise from the bottom in March of 2009 but we didn’t fully recover until early 2013 and there were many drops in the stock market along the way. Many forget that we had greater-than-10% drops in 2010 and 2011, and that made the recovery a bumpy one. Like all recoveries, this one will be uneven.

* * * * *

Click here for a replay of Separating Pandemic Noise From Investment Signals. Please contact us at (800) 492-6868 to learn more about our comprehensive wealth management solutions.


*Webinar recorded after the market closed on Wednesday, April 22, 2020.

Disclaimer: This material is distributed for informational purposes only. The investment ideas and opinions contained herein should not be viewed as recommendations or personal investment advice or considered an offer to buy or sell specific securities. Our statements and opinions are subject to change at any time, without notice and should be considered only as part of a diversified portfolio. Mutual funds and exchange-traded funds mentioned herein are not necessarily held in client portfolios. Data and statistics contained in this report are obtained from what we believe to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

You may request a free copy of the firm’s Form ADV Part 2A, which describes, among other items, risk factors, strategies, affiliations, services offered and fees charged.

Past performance is not an indication of future returns. We do not provide legal or tax advice, nor sell insurance products. Tax, legal and insurance information contained herein is general in nature, is provided for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as legal or tax advice, or as advice on whether to buy or surrender any insurance products. Always consult an attorney or tax professional, or licensed insurance professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation, or insurance needs.

© 2020 Adviser Investments, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

85 Wells Avenue, Suite 109 Newton, MA, 02459

info@adviserinvestments.com 1.800.492.6868

Adviser Investments' logo is a registered trademark of Adviser Investments, LLC.