What Happens When Stimulus Ends?

Has the pandemic-era bull run in the markets been propped up by easy money? Are the markets likely to face headwinds after the initial impact of stimulus wears off? Chief Investment Officer Jim Lowell provided his forecast in our recent webinar,* Inflation, Inoculation and Infrastructure: Defining the New Normal.

Please enjoy the excerpt below and click here for the full webinar replay to hear more. 

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Jim Lowell:

This stimulus round is probably going to be one for the ages—we may be in stimulus to infinity. Or we may not be. I think the good news is, if past is prologue, all of that stimulus won’t have to be repaid all at once. If it becomes in any way, shape or form a drag on the economy, that will be something the Federal Reserve will address and certainly have some maneuvers to deliver into the marketplace.

The stimulus hasn’t ended yet. There’s a distinction between the support stimulus during the peak of the pandemic crisis—intended to tide people over who were forced to not work—and what’s next. Now we’re transitioning into a massive infrastructure proposal, which will include not just the infrastructure that everyone thinks of—the roads, bridges, sewer systems—but also delivering green tech into the energy grid.

Also, hopefully, the infrastructure package will address the huge opportunity gap in terms of the technology super-highway that really needs to be part and parcel of a democracy. A more egalitarian approach is required and necessarily funded.

All that said, this is perhaps the opportunity of our lifetime, in much the way that World War II was for job creation for the prior generation. We have the opportunity now to create jobs for a generation, particularly in the trades. It’s not just a typical tax and spend pattern, but an investment in our economic growth, if it does turn out to be the significant job creator we hope it will.

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Click here for a replay of Inflation, Inoculation and Infrastructure: Defining the New Normal. Please contact us at (800) 492-6868 to learn more about comprehensive wealth management solutions.