Home Guides & Resources chevron_right Investing What If Trade Negotiations With China Fail? Published August 26, 2019 https://www.adviserinvestments.com/wp-content/uploads/how-will-the-economy-be-impacted-if-trade-negotiations-with-china-fail-qw0719excerpt-qa-how-will-the-economy-be-impacted-if-trade-negotiations-with-china-fail.mp3 The on-again, off-again trade dispute between the U.S. and China continues to remain front-and-center in the financial press. Chief Investment Officer Jim Lowell discussed how trade negotiations impact the way Adviser Investments positions client portfolios in our recent quarterly webinar*: Tariffs, Trade and Trump. Please enjoy the excerpt below and click here for the full webinar replay to hear more. * * * * * The way the market is currently priced, the assumption reflected by where the market is suggests there already has been a deal with China on tariffs*. I think investors may be back into that lull of complacency that somehow something’s going to get done. Our view has always been that the likelihood, the probability of some sort of optical agreement, is fairly high while the probability for any agreement that has any sort of regulatory teeth—especially as regards intellectual property rights—is probably fairly low. In terms of how the economy is going to be impacted, if there is no deal with China on tariffs, in other words, if tariffs get ratcheted up we certainly would think that that would be a net negative. That could be the trigger that would lead us into a recession sometime next year. But that said, it is in both superpowers’ and supereconomies’ political best interests and economic self-interest to be able to get some sort of optical deal done. With regard to U.S. and China, tariffs are obviously key but China is not the only issue. We have Canada. We have Mexico. We have Japan on the tariff train. Also, China is not just an issue of tariffs—what’s happening in the streets of Hong Kong is beginning to rise to the level of potential market impact and even economic impact with regard to Hong Kong’s economy but it could also have ripple effects into China. * * * * * Click here for a replay of Tariffs, Trade and Trump. Please contact us at (800) 492-6868 to learn more about comprehensive wealth management solutions. *Webinar recorded after the market closed on July 24, 2019. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. The investment ideas and opinions contained herein should not be viewed as recommendations or personal investment advice or considered an offer to buy or sell specific securities. Data and statistics contained in this report are obtained from what we believe to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Our statements and opinions are subject to change without notice and should be considered only as part of a diversified portfolio. You may request a free copy of the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which describes, among other items, risk factors, strategies, affiliations, services offered and fees charged. Past performance is not an indication of future returns. We do not provide legal or tax advice, nor sell insurance products. Tax, legal and insurance information contained herein is general in nature, is provided for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as legal or tax advice, or as advice on whether to buy or surrender any insurance products. Always consult an attorney or tax, or licensed insurance professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation, or insurance needs. Companies mentioned in this article are not necessarily held in client portfolios and our references to them should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any of them. The Adviser You Can Talk To Podcast is a trademark of Adviser Investments, LLC. Registration pending. © 2019 Adviser Investments, LLC. All Rights Reserved.