Growth Hopes Trump Contagion Fears

Please note: This update was prepared on Friday, February 7, 2020, prior to the market’s close.

U.S. stockA financial instrument giving the holder a proportion of the ownership and earnings of a company. market indexes hit record highs yesterday as the Chinese government reduced tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. imports, job growth persisted and fourth-quarter earnings reports demonstrated modest growth. Thus far, 71% of S&P 500 companies that reported have beaten (admittedly meager) earnings expectations; the market continues to show that, as far as earnings are concerned, doing “better” is good enough.

Amid the gains, the headline concerns of a week ago seemed to be less worrisome for Wall Street. President Trump’s acquittal officially resolved one lingering news item. The U.K. formally split with Europe. And the coronavirus, while still a very real humanitarian disaster, appears to be less of a concern for traders than it has been.

For the year through Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the broader S&P 500 have returned 3.1% and 3.7%, respectively. The MSCI EAFE index, a measure of developed international stock markets, remains nearly flat, with a 0.1% gain. As of Thursday, the yieldYield is a measure of the income on an investment in relation to the price. There are several ways to measure yield. The current yield of a security is the income over the past year (either dividends or coupon payments) divided by the current price. on the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate BondA financial instrument representing an IOU from the borrower to the lender. Bond issuers promise to pay bond holders a given amount of interest for a pre-determined amount of time until the loan is repaid in full (otherwise known as the maturity date). Bonds can have a fixed or floating interest rate. Fixed-rate bonds pay out a pre-determined amount of interest each year, while floating-rate bonds can pay higher or lower interest each year depending on prevailing market interest rates. index has slid to 2.11% from 2.31% at 2019’s end. On a total return basis, the U.S. bondA financial instrument representing an IOU from the borrower to the lender. Bond issuers promise to pay bond holders a given amount of interest for a pre-determined amount of time until the loan is repaid in full (otherwise known as the maturity date). Bonds can have a fixed or floating interest rate. Fixed-rate bonds pay out a pre-determined amount of interest each year, while floating-rate bonds can pay higher or lower interest each year depending on prevailing market interest rates. market has gained 1.5% for the year.

Promising Signs of Coronavirus Containment 

It’s likely that we’ll be hearing a lot more about the coronavirus’ human, economic and market tolls in the months ahead. But so far this week, absent of any hard, verifiable count of the dead and infected in China and elsewhere around the world, global markets—including those of China and Southeast Asia—have been in relief rally mode.

A new research report from S&P Global outlined expectations for the emergency to slow by April and transmissions to cease by May 2020, with any impact on economic growth stabilizing in the back half of the year and recovering as 2021 begins. As with any forecasts of future events, there’s no absolute certainty (especially given the spotty reporting on the scope of the outbreak in China), but it’s promising to see scenarios for the size and timing of the outbreak’s peak that show an end in sight.

U.S. Fundamental Strengths Persist

With the headline noise receding, the fundamentals are supporting market gains. The job market entered 2020 firing on all cylinders, with the ADP private sector jobs report posting the largest monthly gain in nearly five years in January. The official jobs report (from the Bureau of Labor Statistics) showed similar strength, with employers adding 225,000 jobs last month while paying employees 3.1% more than they did a year ago. Both reports are impressive given that unemployment sits at 3.6%.

The labor market’s strength and the consumers it provides with paychecks have been potent enough to prop up temporary soft spots elsewhere. Take manufacturing, for instance. This sector of the economy was sinking in 2019’s second half before stabilizing in January. We saw a similar pattern in 2012 and 2015—a momentary manufacturing contraction while the service sector continued to grow and shoulder the load for the economy as a whole until industrial production recovered.

A Gallup poll released this week showed Americans are as confident as ever before about their personal finances. Nearly six in every 10 respondents said in January that they were better off financially than they were a year ago. That number is up from five in 10 in January 2019. And they’re optimistic about what lies ahead; 74% expect their finances to improve in the coming year.

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Financial Planning Focus:

Is Your Umbrella Open?

When unexpected storm clouds roll in to your life, you don’t want to be caught without an umbrella. Insurance plays a critical role in protecting you from getting drenched. A robust wealth plan requires having more than the bare minimum coverage. That’s why we recommend discussing how to extend insurance beyond traditional packages in any financial planning engagement with clients.

A personal umbrella insurance policy, one that kicks in after the liabilityLiabilities are calculated by adding up your existing debts (mortgage, car loans, student loans, credit cards, etc.). limits of your auto and homeowners policies are exhausted, can protect against potentially devastating liability claims. How does it work? Let’s say you’re at fault in a car accident and the cost of injuries to others is $600,000. Your auto insurance policy has a bodily injury limit that tops out at $300,000—absent umbrella coverage, you’re on the hook for the next $300,000. With a sufficient umbrella policy, you would have insurance coverage for those additional damages.

Your wealth management team can help you determine how big your umbrella policy should be. Generally, to protect against any potential litigation, we recommend covering your liquid net worth.

Are you unsure of your net worth? Start by listing your assets: Bank accounts, investments, home equityThe amount of money that would be returned to shareholders if a company’s assets were sold off and all its debt repaid. and the like. Then add up liabilitiesLiabilities are calculated by adding up your existing debts (mortgage, car loans, student loans, credit cards, etc.).: Mortgage, car and student loans, credit card balances. Subtract those liabilities from your assets and that’s your net worth.

For more from our team on insurance of all types, listen to The Adviser You Can Talk To Podcast episode that covers common insurance needs for people of all ages.

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Looking Ahead

Next week brings more focus on economic fundamentals, with fresh reads on small business confidence, job openings, household debt, retail sales, inflation and consumer sentiment.

As always, please visit www.adviserinvestments.com for our timely and ongoing investment commentary. In the meantime, all of us at Adviser Investments wish you a safe, sound and prosperous investment future.

About Adviser Investments

Adviser is a full-service wealth management firm, offering investment management, financial and tax planning, managed individual bond portfolios, and 401(k) advisory services. We’ve been helping individuals, trustsA legal document that functions as an instruction manual to how you want your money managed and spent in your later years as well as how your assets should be distributed after your death. Assets placed in a trust are generally safe from creditors and can be sold by the trustee in short order, avoiding the lengthy and costly probate process., institutions and foundations since 1994. Adviser Investments and its subsidiaries have over 5,000 clients across the country and over $8 billion in assets under management. Our portfolios encompass actively managed funds, ETFsA type of security which allows investors to indirectly invest in an underlying basket of financial instruments (these may include stocks, bonds, commodities or other types of instruments). Shares in an ETF are publicly traded on an exchange, and the price of an ETF’s shares will fluctuate throughout the trading day (traditional mutual funds trade only once a day). For example, one popular ETF tracks the companies in the S&P 500, so buying a share of the ETF gets an investor exposure to all 500 companies in the index., socially responsible investments and tactical asset allocation strategies, and we’re experts on Fidelity and Vanguard mutual funds. We take pride in being The Adviser You Can Talk To. To see a full list of our awards and recognitions, click here, and for more information, please visit www.adviserinvestments.com or call 800-492-6868.